2019-7-14

Podkorytov V. N., Mochalova L. A. Analysis of commodity prices impact on the manageability of market capitalization of an oil and gas company. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedenii. Gornyi zhurnal = News of the Higher Institutions. Mining Journal. 2019; 7: 122–131 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21440/0536-1028-2019-7-122-131

Research aim. The research is focused on the analysis of commodity prices impact on the manageability of company’s market capitalization by the example of the largest public joint stock companies of oil and gas producing industry abundant at the national stock market. Research object is prices for commodity (oil and natural gas) and stock prices of PJSC Gazprom, PAO Novatek, PJSC Rosneft, PJSC LUKOIL, PJSC Tatneft, PJSC Surgutneftegas. Research methodology and tools. Within the framework of the regression analysis carried out by the authors, the price of 1 barrel of oil and 1 Mmbtu of natural gas were accepted as a factor indicator (closing monthly futures) expressed in US dollars. The price of 1 stock item of an oil and gas company (monthly closing prices) expressed in US dollars.
Results. The regression analysis has shown the following. Firstly, there is some dependence between oil and gas companies stock prices and oil prices, with other external and internal cost factors the given connection is rather strong for several enterprises. Secondly, dependence between stock prices of gas producing companies and prices for natural gas is unobvious which is probably connected with speculative short term spikes in the stock market and results in the need to use monthly median prices. Thirdly, PJSC Surgutneftegas stock prices independence from commodity prices may indicate that attracting investment by means of securities realization in the stock market is not a priority task. Scope of research. Research results may be used by the investors willing to invest in shares of oil and gas companies and by these companies’ managers when controlling their cost.
Summary. The outcome of the research is the following. Firstly, oil and gas companies differ and require not general, but individual approach to cost factor models development. Secondly, when calculating, the use of only one cost factor is not very reasonable, therefore multifactor regression model development is required when managing the cost of a company.

Key words: oil and gas company; company’s market capitalization; price for oil; price for natural gas; price for a stock item; cost factors; company’s cost management.

 

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Received 18 July 2019

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